Sports Bard

…for the sports writer inside.

In the City That Never Sleeps, at a time when baseball, football, basketball, and hockey intersect, what animates the five-borough residents most of all during these late October nights are thoughts of the New York Yankees. Whether it be A-Rod’s prodigious blasts, Derek Jeter’s guile, Mariano Rivera’s unhittable cutter, or nightmarish reminders of the collapse of 2004…….it’s the stuff that dreams are made of.

Late season heroics by the Yanks have been on hold for the past five years, but they have been on full display during the past two weeks.

During their three-game sweep of the Twins in the Divisional Playoffs A-Rod hit game-saving homers in games two and three; Jeter lured Twinkie Nick Spanos into a desperate surge ‘round third before calmly throwing him out; and Rivera, by performing to his usual excellence during a week when fellow closers Papelbon, Nathan, Franklin, and Street failed miserably, cemented his standing as the game’s greatest closer.

Against the Angels in the just-concluded ALCS, the Yanks won with pitching and defense and generally outsmarted their past tormentors in convincing 4-2 fashion. The victory was not without its trepidations, however. The Yankees capitalized on Sabathia’s pitching and Angel errors to sprint to a 2-0 lead, but when the Bomber bull pen blew game 5 after storming ahead 6-4 in the top of the seventh, Yank fans started running scared.

The main objects of the scorn were relievers Hughes and Chamberlain, who were hit hard throughout the series, and Manager Girardi, who was charged with felony over-managing.

In Game 3, he relieved David Robertson with two out, nobody on, in the top of the eleventh. Robertson’s substitute Alfredo Aceves promptly relinquished a hard single and a game-winning double. Then in game 5, Girardi pinch ran Freddy Guzman for A-Rod with the Yankees trailing by a run in the eighth. The skipper was also roasted for allowing shaky starter A.J. Burnett to start the seventh.

In the words of Mike Francesa, a “Tension Convention” set in. The Ghosts of 2004 evoked eerie fears of failure among the faithful. So scared were Yankee fans going into game 6 that the ball game drew a “forty share” tv rating to the “eight share” registered by the Giants-Arizona game being played across the river in the Meadowlands.

The fans respect for the Angels was well grounded. With their combination of pesky contact hitters, daring base stealers, tight defense, and brilliant relief pitching, the Angels had managed to defeat the Yankees in two divisional playoffs (2002 and 2005) and five consecutive season series. They were hard to grab hold of, these Angels. Just when you had them down, they’d string three or four base hits in a row to grab the lead.

This year’s Angels, however, did not bring with them their traditional set of demons. For one thing, their indomitable closer, Francisco Rodriguez, now toiled for the Mets. His successor, Brian Fuentes, served up a tying ninth inning homer to A-Rod on an 0-2 pitch which turned game 2.

The Angels never got their running game going because Yankee pitchers stifled Angel table setters Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu into 7-48 hitting and one stolen base. To top things off, the Halos committed uncharacteristic base running mistakes and made eight errors in the field, including an unforgivable 3-pointer launched by Scott Kazmir over the first baseman’s head on a Yankee bunt in the 8th inning of game six.

The Phillies pose a more tangible set of obstacles. They’ve got power pitchers and a band of sluggers who will pose as much of a threat to the short Yankee Stadium right field porch as the Bombers themselves. They’re not particularly fast, and their manager Charlie Manuel is old school. One through six in the batting order, they’re as strong as anybody in the majors. They’re the defending World Series Champs and have won their last five post season series, going 18-4 in the process.

Position by position, the Phillies stack up reasonably well against the Yankees. Notwithstanding the Phils’ triumvirate of Rollins, Utley and Howard, consisting of two recent mvp’s and the most productive second baseman in baseball, the Yankees hold the edge in the infield. Cano and Teixeira provide far better defense than Utley and Howard; and Jeter and A-Rod destroy Philadelphia’s left side offensively. The guess here is that a Howard miscue at first will figure prominently in a Yankee rally. Posada at catcher outshines the Phils’ Ruiz.

The Phils hold the edge in the outfield. Victorino is brilliant in center field, Werth possesses a powerful throwing arm in right, and Ibanez is better in the field than either Damon or Matsui. At the plate, the Phils are also slightly better, particularly with Swisher slumping.

Which brings us to pitching, where the Phillies have been in a state of flux. Neither the Phils’ rotation nor its bullpen bears much resemblance to the stellar crew which marched through the Brewers, Dodgers, and Tampa Bay a year ago. The only holdover in the rotation is Cole Hamels, last year’s NLCS and World Series mvp, but this year’s question mark. In three post-season starts, his E.R.A is 6.75.

Phils anchor, Cliff Lee, acquired in mid-season from Cleveland, has been unhittable this post-season. Through 20 innings, he’s 3-0 with an unthinkable E.R.A of .74. But the lineups he faced against the Rockies and Dodgers did not contain names like Jeter, Rodriguez, Teixeira and Matsui. Familiar with the left-handed Lee from his days in the American League, this foursome is lifetime 31-83 against him with good power numbers. Lee was a teammate in Cleveland of Yankee powerhouse CC Sabathia; and like CC, he’s a former Cy Young winner, but he does not carry the same warranty.

Pedro Martinez is scheduled to start game two at the Stadium. Martinez was acquired by the Phils in mid-August, did not pitch against Colorado, but twirled seven masterful innings of two-hit ball in game 2 against the Dodgers, who had not faced him during the regular season. The Yanks know Pedro from his seasons with the Red Sox and inter-league play with the Mets. They are unlikely to be so fooled by his off-speed medley as were the free-swinging, youthful Dodgers.

The Yankee starter in game 2 will be A.J. Burnett. Unlike his mentally-steeled teammates, Burnett has a fragile psyche. With runners on base, in a tight situation, Burnett is as likely to throw one in the dirt as on the black. Unlike Andy Pettitte, who manages to wriggle out of situations, Burnett never met an inning he could not mutilate. Game 5 against the Angels is a case in point. After surrendering four runs in the first, he pitched five scoreless, only to melt-down in the critical seventh inning. Nevertheless, he has enough pure stuff to outlast Pedro who will be hard-pressed to enter the sixth against the patient Yankees.

The Phillies have more depth in their rotation than the Yanks, but starters four and five are of little benefit in a seven game series. At the three hole, Pettitte holds the edge over Hamels. Going into the playoffs, the perception was that the Yanks’ bullpen was much better than the Phils’. Following the disappointing performances of Hughes and Chamberlain, and decent efforts by the Phils’ middle against Colorado and L.A., that conclusion is uncertain; but the Yanks hold a clear and convincing advantage with their closer, Rivera, over Brad Lidge.

The Yanks are likely to start left-handers in at least four, and maybe five, of the seven games. This is bad news for Howard, on whom the Phillies are dependent for their run production. Against lefties this season, Howard hit .207 compared to .319 against right-handers. He can be pitched to.

These historic franchises last met in the Fall Classic in 1950, when the Yankees swept the Whiz Kids. The Phils should do better this time.

Yankees in five.

Mark Teixeira applies Yanks’ finishing touch

I like football as much as the next guy. In the fall, a few weeks into the season, when the World Series is over, I’ll plant myself before the tube on an NFL Sunday, and there is no better action.

But not now, not when the temperature is in the ‘90’s, and the pennant races are in full force. Not now do I want to hear about the competition for back-up long snapper. Not now do I want to read front page stories about the turmoil of Jason Campbell;, and not now do I want to listen to thrice-hourly updates from Redskins Park.

If you listen to sportstalk and read the news coverage in any major eastern town other than D.C., then you know that this area’s fixation on its professional football team is out-sized…..and out of place.

I’m nauseated by the Redskin drivel dispensed by the local sportstalk hosts, and I’m bored by the Washington Post’s daily dose of three or more articles on Redskin training camp.

In Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and even in Baltimore, where the Orioles do not contend, the emphasis now is on baseball. There’s an appropriate nod to major developments occurring in the football camps; but the coverage is primarily about pennant races, rotations, pitch counts, wild card races, injuries, and home runs, The home team’s game is carefully scrutinized by the radio host, who has normally watched every pitch. On WFAN, in New York, Mike Francesa can spend hours analyzing Omar Minaya’s personnel moves or Joe Girardi’s handling of his pitching staff. It’s good listening, and it’s what the callers want to talk about, often intelligently.

ON ESPN 980, owned by Daniel Snyder, the mix is 80% Redskins and 20% other stuff. Vinnie Cerrato, executive director for player personnel, hosts one show. Several others originate from Redskin training camp. A recent show was centered around Fan Appreciation Day at the camp. The patter is constant. Redskin this…….. Redskin that. And this is for a team which has posted a 76-84 mark over the past ten years.

For years, I’ve maintained that the sportstalk in this town is the worst in the country. Snyder’s acquisition of ESPN 980 only made it worse. The real problem lies with the on-air talent, which is dull and unimaginative. At ESPN 980, where the local programming runs from noon to seven, the featured talent is Steve Czaban, a short, bald, fat guy who loves to hear his own voice. The pompous Czaban will often interrupt his co-host on the Sports Reporters, the sensible Andy Pollin, to relate a dull anecdote about his personal life.

Close behind on the “they must go” list is Kevin Sheehan who fills the noon to two slot with 120 minutes of sludge. Sheehan is incapable of making a declarative statement without issuing some type of qualifier, as in “He’s not the best tight end in the league, but he’s not the worst, either.” Doc Walker and John Thompson sling hash from 2-4, being careful not to disagree with each other. Then the Sports Reporters (Pollin and Czaban) take over. The station’s talent level was bolstered recently by the firing of Brian Mitchell and Al Kolken. It was called a layoff; but Mitchell was fired for poor grammar, and Kolken’s run-on sentences finally ran out of steam.

Every few months, ESPN 980 alters its lineup, matching and mixing its existing pieces, but rarely bringing in a new face. Just two weeks ago, the midday “Inside the Locker Room” was re-named the “Sports Fix” with Washington Times reporter Thom Loverro joining Sheehan. What exactly is being fixed is unclear since together they talk the same nonsense that Sheehan used to do himself. Loverro is bright and has a nuanced view of sports, but he’s overpowered by the blustery Sheehan and his (Loverro’s) voice sounds like Squiggy in Laverne and Shirley.

When I heard that 106.7 FM was going to a sportstalk format, I was initially enthused. But then I learned that one of their afternoon hosts was LaVarr Arrington. I tuned in anyway; and sure enough, it was more Redskin overload, but with a soft rock melody in the background. I turned that off soon enough, and went to scan.

My relief lies in the DirecTV baseball package, where I can watch eight games at once, or in the case of the Yankees-Red Sox series this weekend, one game with riveted attention. With the Yanks leading the Red Sox by 2.5 games in the AL east, but having lost all eight games this season to the Bosox, this four-game session was the first crucial series of the season.

The Yanks came into the series on a hot streak and with their rotation set up perfectly - Chamberlain, Burnett, Sabathia and Pettitte. Boston was in disarray. Injuries to Dice K and Wakefield have left the Bosox with only two sure pieces in their rotation - Beckett and Lester. 42-year old John Smoltz and young Clay Buchholz were entrusted to start games one and three.

In what would be his last appearance with Boston, and perhaps as a major league pitcher, the venerable Smoltzie offered little against the Yanks on Thursday. His fastball peaked at 86 and his slider had little bite. Chamberlain was only slightly less shaky - walking eight batters in five innings - but he got the big outs with strikeouts. Yanks win 13-6.

Game one would be the last noise made by Red Sox bats for 31 innings, or until Victor Martinez homered in the eighth inning of game four to give Boston a short-lived 2-1
lead. In between, Burnett, Sabathia, and Pettitte made Red Sox loyalists realize what they were missing with Manny Ramirez encamped 3000 miles away in Los Angeles. In losing 2-0 in fifteen innings Friday, and 5-0 Saturday, the Sox went 8 for 76 and 0-12 with runners in scoring position. The drought continued through seven innings Sunday.

What made Boston so formidable from 2003 to 2007 was their 3-4 combo of Ramirez and Ortiz. Ramirez’ antics made him hard to stomach; and many Sawx fans cheered his departure last July for Jason Bay. But with Bay slumping, and Ortiz on his last legs as a feared slugger, the hole in the middle of the Red Sox lineup is glaring.

Desperate for more punch, the Sox traded just before the 7/31 trading deadline for Indians all-star Martinez, who hits for power and can catch, play first base, and DH. They also acquired 1B Casey Kotchman from Atlanta. With Youkilis, Varitek, Lowell, Martinez, Ortiz, and Kotchman, the Sox have six quality players to fill third, catcher, first and dh.

Content with their regular lineup and with their pitching, the Yanks saw fit to add only utility player Jerry Hairston at the trade deadline. Hairston is the fifth player in his immediate family to play in the major leagues, and play he does. He can fill in at third base, shortstop and second, and at all three outfield positions. And he’s got some pop in his bat. Confident, with the hot Andy Pettitte on the hill, the Yanks sought to deliver the knockout blow to Boston in game 4 Sunday. A victory would stretch their lead to 6.5 games.

Through the first six innings, Lester and Pettitte were brilliant. Then Alex Rodriguez broke the ice with his second clutch homer in two days (his blast in the 15th inning ended Friday’s affair) to give the Yanks a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the seventh. Lester’s pitch was 95 and down in the zone, but there are reasons why A-Rod is the most prolific right-handed home run hitter in the history of the American League. He can hit the other guy’s best pitch.

Surprisingly, Girardi chose to protect the lead with lefty Phil Coke rather than Phil Hughes, who has been the bridge to Mariano Rivera for two months. Girardi claimed later that he was committed to avoiding using Hughes on three straight days. But Hughes faced only two batters and made nine pitches on Friday and Saturday combined. Was Girardi over-managing? When Pedroia laced a hard single to left and Martinez smashed Coke’s weak offering deep into the left field seats, Girardi looked like a fool, and the Red Sox looked like they might escape the Bronx with their pride intact and the deficit just 4.5 games.

100 mph r-h reliever Dan Bard opened the eighth by blowing out Melky Cabrera and Derek Jeter. Perhaps impressed by Bard’s velocity, manager Terry Francona left him in to face the lefty Johnny Damon. He had lefty Okajima available. Damon met Bard’s low heat with a perfectly-timed easy swing which sent the ball soaring on a line over the fence in right center field. Mark Teixeira followed with a high arching homer into the proximate right field seats. Yankees win, Yankees sweep.

Everything’s going right for the Yankees now. For once, their plunges into the free agent market have been fruitful. Sabbathia, Burnett, Teixeira, and Swisher are all having splendid years. Their core -Jeter, Rivera, Posada, and Pettitte - is healthy and performing at a high level. Cano, Damon, Cabrera and Matsui are all contributing. There are no soft spots in the lineup. Hairston fills out the bench. The bullpen has been stellar.

Can the Bombers be stopped? Never in their long history have they relinqusihed a pennant or division championship when leading by six or more games in August. They look like a lock to win the AL East, but Boston, with stoppers in Beckett and Lester, can still create problems in a short series. In the National League, Philadelphia looks like a juggernaut, and LA has a great regular lineup.

But these and other issues will not be resolved before the dog days of August and the pennant drives of September. This is when baseball is at its best, except for the Divisional Series’, the League Championships, and the Fall Classic.

Yeah, I like football as much as the next guy. Just not now.

A-Rod certifies that he’s back.

For the first five weeks of the new season, Yankee manager Joe Girardi has been reaching for the Rolaids but getting no relief. His bullpen has pitched to a collective era over six; bridge men Damaso Marte and Brian Bruney are on the disabled list; and closer Mariano Rivera has already relinquished a season’s worth of home runs, including two in a row for the first time in his career.

To make matters worse, in the early going, Yank starting pitching was averaging slightly more than five innings per start. This means that the bullpen was taking over in the sixth inning, rather than the seventh or eighth. That’s a bridge too far to closer Rivera.

In the championship seasons, the Yanks’ formula for success was not to outslug the opponent but to take a tight lead into the seventh inning and rely on the bullpen to shut the door. In most cases, the lead was built by adequate to good starting pitching from the likes of Pettite, Clemens, El Duque, and Jimmy Key. In 1996, the young Rivera provided the bridge to closer John Wetteland. When Rivera became the closer in 1997, Mike Stanton, Jeff Nelson, and Ramiro Mendoza provided a seamless link to the impeccable Mariano.

But it hasn’t been that way for years. The Yanks have brought in lefty specialists who couldn’t get lefthanders out (Alan Embree, Ron Villone, Mike Meyer). They’ve signed free agent relievers to big contracts who failed (Steve Karsay, Tom Gordon). They made a big splash when they signed hard-throwing Ryan Farnsworth for the purpose of pitching the seventh and eighth inning of close games; but they, and the rest of the league, came to realize that Farnsworth’s 98 mph heater had no movement.

This year, the Yank bullpen has been downright incendiary. Already, opponents have scored ten or more runs against them eight times, including Cleveland’s 22-4 romp April 18th. No less than 13 hurlers have been employed in relief roles already this season. Rivera has been solid, but the bridge to him has been in need of structural repair.

But after this weekend’s two of three series victory over the Orioles at Camden Yards, which included the heroic return of A-Rod and a four-hit masterpiece Friday night by C.C. Sabbathia, the bullpen is showing signs that it is no longer leaking fluid.

In Monument Park of the new Yankee Stadium, there exist stone tributes to the careers of many Yankee greats. Most expect that the next admittee will be Derek Jeter when his glorious career ends in the next several years or Rivera if he retires first. But a strong candidate for admission is lefty Phil Coke, who yesterday became the first Yank reliever all season to pitch a scoreless seventh and eighth inning of a close game.

It may be too soon to anoint Coke as the next Rivera. Consider that the bottom of the Orioles line-up consists of Ty Wigginton (.198), Geoff Zahn (.210), Felix Pie (.183) and Robert Andino (.261 in 23 at-bats). But Coke didn’t walk anybody, he didn’t hit anybody, and he didn’t give up any runs.

Even more thrilling than Coke’s performance Sunday was the Friday night spectacle provided by A-Rod. who was returning to play for the first time this season after hip surgery and the disclosure that he took steroids. On a beautiful night before a packed stadium, the teams led with their aces - Sabbathia for the Yanks and Jeremy Guthrie for the Orioles. There was a buzz in the air and most of it was coming from A-Rod.

Just before the national anthem, he was the only player warming up, engaged in long toss from varying distances with Yank sub Ramiro Pena. When he finally entered the dugout, he was met with fist bumps by several players. Oriole fans were not so generous. In addition to the numerous “A-Roid” fingerpointers, one prominent sign displayed a needle and syringe aimed at a butt labeled “A-Roid.”

In the top of the first, Guthrie put himself in an early hole with walks to Damon and Teixeira. The first pitch to A-Rod was 97 mph right down the middle, and A-Rod met it with a ferocity that belied that he had not played in a major league game in eight months. Bernard Malamud couldn’t have scripted it better. This wasn’t just A-Rod’s first game back, or his first at-bat. It was the first pitch.

The ball arched on a high, mighty, trajectory toward the State Farm Insurance sign in dead left-center field. Any doubt that it was going was eliminated by A-Rod himself, who flipped his bat discourteously a couple of steps out of the batter’s box. His trot around the bases was measured, almost stylistic, and when he crossed homeplate to a cheering dugout, Yankee fans felt goose bumps. The only thing missing was a bolt of lightning destroying the light system.

A-Rod was quiet the rest of the night, and the Orioles were lifeless, as if the electricity generated by the A-bomb had sapped them of strength. They succumbled quietly to Sabbathia’s mixed offerings. The Big Fella, who looks every gram of his three-bills-plus tonnage, utilizes four pitches at speeds varying from 98 to 78. He seems to be rounding into the form the Yanks anticipated when they signed him to a 161M, 7-year contract during the off-season. In fact, when Sabbathia huddled at the mound briefly with A-Rod, Jeter, and Teixeira, it was the first official gathering for the most expensive infield in baseball history. Between them, these four stars earn just under one hundred million per season.

Whether they are enough to launch the Yankees to the playoffs is problematic. As good as they are, A-Rod, Jeter, and Teixeira can’t pitch the seventh and eighth innings. And Sabbathia, as good as he is, pitches only every fifth day.

Does anybody know a good bridge repairman?

"El Pato" flourishes his fist pump form.

At the convergence of the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball championships, Major League Baseball, the Hockey playoffs, and the NBA, through a fortnight of surprisingly undramatic finishes, untimely deaths (Nick Adenhart, Harry Kalas, and Mark Fidrych) and sun-drenched Opening Days, the image which lingers is the fist-pump of Angel Cabrera when he knows that his crucial putt will indeed find its way to the center of the cup.

Angel had an opportunity to display the pump several times on the way to his most unlikely Masters win. Many golfers employ a similar tactic to indicate their pleasure with a putt’s outcome, but Angel lets loose the earliest, well before the ball reaches its destination.

Cabrera is not your typical Masters Champion. After he won the U.S. Open in 2007, an even more unexpected victory than the one Sunday, he said “There are some players that have psychologists, some have sportologists, I smoke.” At 6′ and pushing 220, he is decidedly overweight. In his native Argentina , he is known as “El Pato” for his close resemblance to a duck when he waddles, or walks down the fairway.

But what he lacks in style, Cabrera more than makes up for in nerve. Both in the Open two years ago, when he came from behind to beat Tiger Woods by one stroke, and in the Masters on Sunday, when he seemed impervious to the pressures which dogged his playing partner Kenny Perry, the man seems unfazed by the circus around him. In the Masters, he nailed critical putts on four of the last five holes; and on the first play-off hole, saved par after driving into the trees and knocking wood on his second shot.

Does Cabrera’s calm come from the cigarettes or from his early start at gamesmanship? Growing up in Cordoba, Argentina, Angel quit school in the sixth grade to become a full time caddie at the Cordoba Country Club. At sixteen, he moved in with his girl friend, ten years his senior. He honed his golf game playing against other caddies for money. To paraphrase the great Moe Green, Cabrera earned his bones when other Tour members were dating cheerleaders.

What was so incredible about Cabrera’s victory Sunday is that he emerged as a potential winner only in the waning moments. For the first fourteen holes of the final round, the pairing of Woods and Phil Michelson attracted all the crowds and most of the television attention. All of Tiger’s and Phil’s swings were shown live; but many of Cabrera’s and Perry’s swings were shown on tape, though they were atop the leader board. As anyone who saw the Tiger-Phil shootout knows, the decision by TV brass was understandable.

The crowd concurred. Spectators flooded Phil and Tiger and virtually ignored the last twosomes. It was if Ali-Frazier was the prelim, and Holmes-Spinks the main event. But when Phil and Tiger went to fade, Cabrera, Perry, and Chad Campbell were the last men standing. And then Angel became the last man standing.

Was Cabrera’s win as much mental as physical? Despite his picture perfect powerful swing, Angel found himself trailing Perry by two strokes with two to go. Perry had not suffered a bogey through sixteen holes. Then he imploded, inexplicably, unaccountably, except for the explanation offered by Perry himself. “It just seems like when I get down to these deals, I can’t seem to execute. Great players make it happen, and your average players don’t.” Perry all but admitted that he had succumbed to his inner demon.

Cabrera would be the last to call himself a “great player.” His only two wins on the regular PGA tour have been his two majors. But if I see his name on the leader board of a major entering the final round, Tiger Woods or no Tiger Woods, I’m putting my money on the man who slays the demons.

Last year, at about this time, we analyzed the Regionals in the context of certain statistical measures provided by Statfox in their publication “Edge,” which identified eight traits shared by more than eighty percent (80%) of Final Four teams over the past eleven years. They are, as follows:

Scored at least 73 PPG
Allowed 67 PPG or less
Outscored opponents by at least 10 PPG
Shot at least 47% from the field
Allowed 41% or less from the field
Shot at least 69% on free throws
Shot at least 35% on 3PT attempts
Out rebounded opponents by at least 3 RPG

Let’s apply these standards to our analysis of this weekend’s games:

East Regionals (Boston).

Pitt (1) vs. Xavier (4). Pitt has been our darling all year, but they don’t blow good teams out, and they are vulnerable should DuJuan Blair get into foul trouble. Plus, they’re not playing at their best right now. In Xavier, they meet a team which is cast in their blue collar image and coached by a Pitt alum, Sean Miller, who played point guard for the Panthers in the early nineties. Both teams favor the half-court set and a lot of interior banging. Role players play a big role with both teams. Pitt goes eight deep, Xavier nine deep. Between them, nine players score between five and nine points. But Xavier has no one to contain the bestial Blair, and no one to match the athleticism of Sam Young. The Muskies’ offense comes primarily from three versatile and veteran forwards: C.J. Anderson, Derrick Brown, and B.J. Raymond. Indicator-wise, Pitt nearly sweeps the board, but for its 67.4%. foul shooting .Most impressively, they out score opponents 78-64, and out rebound them by ten a game. The X-men flunk in two categories (46.3 FG%, 67.5 FT%), but out rebound by eight a game and shoot 39.9% from 3-point land, tying Gonzaga for best in the tournament. At crunch time, Pitt has veteran leadership with LaVance Fields at the point vs. the inexperienced Holloway and Redford. This may prove the difference in a close game. We like Pitt to emerge, but will not lay the seven.

Duke (2) vs. Villanova (3). Duke comes into this game ranked no. 1 in the RPI, and as ACC tournament champion, but we’re not convinced of their greatness. For one thing, they get scoring from three individuals only. Only Henderson, Singler, and Scheyer, are double figure threats. Like Pitt and Xavier, Villanova has several bangers and spreads its offense around nicely. Eight players score more than five per game, and Dante Cunningham will be the best big man on the floor. Their dismantling of UCLA in the second round was a masterpiece. Statistically, Villanova passes all the tests but one (45.7 FG%), but shoots free throws at 74.2%, second best to UNC in the remaining field. Duke shoots (44.8%) and defends (43%) less than the standard, and shoots 3-balls at 34.9%.We cannot see the Blue Devils matching up to ‘Novas muscular front court and overall depth. Take Villanova plus the 2.5 point helping.

If we’re right, Sunday’s regional final will be a rematch of two Big East heavyweights. When they first met, Villanova pasted Pitt in Philadelphia, 67-57; and true to form, Blair was in foul trouble. If the Big Fella plays his game, the Panthers will book passage to Detroit.

South Regional (Memphis)

North Carolina (1) vs. Gonzaga (4) This is a matchup of the most offensively-minded teams in the tournament. There are perhaps eleven future pros on both teams combined, including the starting teams and Carolina rookie sensation Ed Davis off the bench. Both teams like to press the tempo, but the ‘Zags pay more attention to stopping their opponent. They defend at 37% compared to the Tarheels’ 42%. They relinquish 61 PPG compared to UNC’s 73 PPG. Nevertheless, Carolina enjoys the largest margin of victory in the tournament (20 pts), and has been able to survive its benign neglect on defense by out scoring its opponents. A whopping five Tarheels score eleven points or more.

With the return to full strength of Ty Lawson, it becomes more important for Gonzaga point guard Jeremy Pargo to assert himself. At 6-2 220, Pargo is a brute with a good handle, a hard move to the basket, and post-up skills. His scoring is down from the last two years as he has become more of a distributor than a first or second option; but if he can put pressure on Lawson defensively, that might slow the Carolina engine. As well, Josh Heyvelt must actively engage Ty Hansbrough down low for the ‘Zags to stay competitive. The rest of the Bulldogs - Daye, Bouldin, and Gray- can more than match up with Heels Ellington, Thompson, and Green. Take Gonzaga plus the 8.5.

Oklahoma (2) vs. Syracuse (3) Oklahoma comes within a hair of meeting all the statistical measures, but they give up 68 PPG, and they shoot fouls at 68%. The Orangemen flunk four of the eight tests. Their margin of victory is only nine points, they give up 72 PPG, their rebounding margin is just two, and they shoot fouls at a woeful 63.9%. This figure may be a bit deceiving since big men Oneaku and Jackson are the primary bricklayers and the ball handlers shoot free throws well; but at crunch time, Boeheim cannot go with his best front court because of the threat of putting Oneaku or Jackson on the line. And the Orangemen will want all the front court strength they can muster to combat the tirades of Sooner Blake Griffin, who shoots 63.5% from the field and is the likely Player of the Year. To stay close, ‘Cuse must ring up the register with 3-balls because they will be at a disadvantage in the blocks. Reluctantly, because we favor the ‘Cuse, we see the Sooners advancing.

We like the winner of the Gonzaga-UNC tussle to advance against either Syracuse or Oklahoma.

West Region (Glendale)

UConn (1) vs. Purdue (5). Purdue is a nice team with nice players, but it may be in over its head against a rejuvenated Huskie squad which has found the scorer to replace the injured Jerome Dyson in 6’9” forward Stanley Robinson. Though averaging just 7.1 for the season, Robinson has scored 64 points in the last three games, including 28 in the memorable 6 OT affair against Syracuse in the Big East Tournament. There is no better front line in the tournament than Hakeem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and Robinson. Slender Purdue simply cannot do battle with this threesome in the trenches. Purdue does not make up this deficiency in the backcourt where UConn’s Price, Walker, and Austrie will give no ground. Statistically speaking, Connecticut dominates, with a 13 pt scoring margin (77-64), a 47% -38% advantage in FG marksmanship, and an 8 rebound/game advantage. Their foul shooting and 3 FG% are slightly under par at 67.7% and 34.7%, respectively. Purdue has some difficulty scoring (69 PPG) and does not out rebound its opponents. This may be an old-fashioned beat down. Lay the 6.5.

Memphis (2) vs. Missouri (3). Missouri is the new kid on the block. Memphis has been here before. That should count for something. But there are other reasons that the Tigers (of the Missouri variety) may be in trouble. Memphis has the ball handlers to withstand the Mizzou press, and that may open up fast break opportunities for Memphis to attack the rim, which they do very well. There is no better forward scoring tandem in basketball than Missouri’s DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons; but after these two, there is a drop-off. No one else scores double figures. Carroll is a transfer from Vanderbilt, who left Nashville to join his uncle, coach Mike Anderson, at Missouri. The Commodores could have used him the last couple of years. Statistically, Memphis kills. They outscore opponents by 15 and impose a 36 FG% on the opposition. Their only drawback is from 3 pt. land where they shot an abysmal 32%, worst of the sweet sixteen. But they were accurate against Maryland in the round of 32. Missouri has a healthy margin of victory (81-66), but their rebounding (no edge) and their foul shooting (66.8%) are questionable. Lay the 4.5.

In the regional finals, we see a contest between Memphis and UConn that is too close to call. Check Today’s Selections II on game day for a pick.

Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)

Louisville (1) vs. Arizona (12). When the season began, Arizona found itself without a coach and without a starting five. When Lute Olson retired, and Mike Dunlap refused an interim appointment, hand-me-down Russ Fennell took over. Meanwhile, three prize recruits opted to go elsewhere. It took most of the season for the Wildcats to develop reliable complements to stars Budinger, Hill, and Wise; but having filled out their starting quintet, they are left with no bench. Against Louisville, which presses relentlessly and has a deep bench, the end is in sight for the Wildcats, whose average margin of victory is a scant 4 points (72-68) and who relinquish 44% FG%. On the plus side, they shoot 39.5% from 3 point land and 73.4% from the stripe. Louisville’s only deficiency is from the foul line (64.3%). Arizona will have to pitch a perfect game to keep this one close. Lay the nine.

Michigan State (2) vs. Kansas (3). Michigan State won a previous meeting at East Lansing, 75-62; but the Jayhawks feature four freshmen in their rotation who are better players now than they were then. And Kansas, alone among the Sweet Sixteen, meets all of the statistical measures we are following. Significantly, they shoot 48% from the field and give up just 39%; outrebound by seven; shoot 38% from 3 point land; and shoot 72.8% from the stripe. These are very strong numbers. The Spartans come up short in four of the eight categories. We suspect that the combination of Collins and Aldrich is better than anything that Michigan State can come up with.

If Louisville plays Kansas in the regional final, the Cardinals’ experience and pressure is likely to overcome any edge Kansas may have in the statistics. As all gamblers know, no matter the advantage going in, the game still has to be played on the court.