Sports Bard

…for the sports writer inside.

Vanderbilt University takes pride in its balanced view towards athletics. Winless in the SEC in 2009, the Commodores football team led the conference by placing 37 members on the SEC fall academic honor roll. Its athletes live among the general student population and take regular course loads.

But for just one week, this normally placid student body let its emotions for football and basketball take over.

On Wednesday, Rajaan Bennett, Vanderbilt’s top recruit for football, and by all accounts, a model citizen as well as the outstanding high school football player in Georgia, was shot and killed by the ex-boyfriend of his mother. Though not yet enrolled, Bennett had already ingratiated himself with the Vanderbilt community by his off the field charitable and community works.

Said Vandy coach Bobby Johnson, “We are devastated by news of Rajaan’s death. As we came to know him, we realized that he was a better person than he was an athlete. He was a leader, a young man who gained the respect of his entire community.”

Strong words for someone who had not yet donned the black and gold.

But there was little time to mourn. On Saturday, second-ranked Kentucky came to town to battle the Commodores for sole possession of first place in the SEC West. On paper, Kentucky appeared too strong, having already pasted the Commodores 85-72 January 30th in Lexington. But with due regard to Vanderbilt’s tenacity and the near-mystical powers of its home court, Memorial Gym, the game was a pick’em affair with the linesmaker.

Notwithstanding its limitations in football, where the budget and personnel requirements are vast, Vandy more than holds its own in the SEC in basketball. Its unique gym and rabid alumni fan base have created one of the great home court advantages. Over the last four years, Vandy is 26 and 4 at Memorial in SEC games, including wins over two no. 1 ranked teams, with three NCAA appearances, counting this year’s certain bid.

Memorial Gym was built in 1951. Instead of seats, there are benches. The individual seat assignments consist of about 24″ of bench. Don’t flex too far to either side or you’re likely to be called for a flagrant foul on your neighbor. Forget about armrests or places to store your drink. And more likely than not your sight line will be impeded by an overhanging deck.

But when you’re inside this arena, revisiting the 1950’s, feeling the momentum of the crowd, you don’t think twice about the amenities you’re missing. The cheerleaders and acrobats, sixty strong, look fresh out of Barnum and Bailey.
Following a rendition of the national anthem which made you want to enlist, the public address announcer requested a moment of silence for Bennett. The crowd complied, grudgingly, because it was ready to erupt.

Kentucky has three certain lottery picks among its starting five, including the best player in the country, freshman John Wall. Unemcumbered by gravity or speed limits, Wall can leap over you or dash around you. With a head of steam in the open court, there is no stopping him, even if opponents are back and waiting. Incredibly, he is almost as much of a presence on defense. He gets every loose ball, and routinely blocks jump shot attempts on the perimeter.

Despite his overriding talent, Wall’s first choice is to set up his teammates, which include Demarcus Cousins, a dominating low post center. Just a freshman, Cousins has been compared to Moses Malone. Most Kentucky half-court possessions begin with an entry pass by Wall to Cousins. All-American 6′10″ Junior Patrick Patterson is the third intimidating option.

Going in, Vanderbilt knew that it had to keep a man in front of Wall at all times and had to double team the post, where A.J. Ogilvy was no match for Cousins. Ogilvy, however, is active offensively and posed a threat to put the volatile Cousins in foul trouble.

The game started out according to form. Vandy went inside to Ogilvy for its first points, and Wall repeatedly fed Cousins in the post. Both centers quickly picked up a first foul. Kentucky coach John Calipari was the first to yank his centerpiece, replacing Cousins with backup center Daniel Orton on alternating possessions beginning two minutes into the game. The pattern continued as Cal, in his first game at Memorial Gym, tried desperately to preserve his asset. Commodore coach Kevin Stalling was equally protective of Ogilvy, replacing him several times throughout the contest with sub burlymen Steve Tchiengang and Festus Ezeli.

The defense on both sides was brutal. Jermaine Beal, Vanderbilt’s skilled senior point guard, glued himself to Wall and negated his penetration. He tirelessly ran around picks designed to free Wall. The rest of the Commodores played their men with similar ferocity. On the other end, the Wildcats were just as determined. They continually rebuffed Vandy efforts to get inside, Cousins and Patterson serving as human fly swatters to Vandy’s feeble attempts to reach the rim. Both teams were ice cold from the perimeter. The score at halftime - Kentucky 27, Vandy 25. This, from teams averaging 79 and 78 ppg, respectively.

Points were just as hard to come by in the second half. Ahead 49-45 with the ball inside five minutes, Vandy was poised to achieve a break-through, but four stalled possessions later, they trailed by four points with less than two minutes to go. Beal and Andre Walker made successive lay ups to tie it; but Wall scooped up a loose ball and laid it in, and his two foul shots stretched the lead to four with 19 ticks on the clock.

It is likely that the crowds at Kansas, Louisville, Duke or Kentucky are just as vocal as the Vanderbilt contingent, but within these crowded confines, in the midst of a Commodore run, the sound resonates, and the floor trembles. That is what happened when freshman John Jenkins’ 3-ball, over Wall brought the Commodores within one with .12 to go. After Kentucky freshman Bledsoe missed two fouls, Beal brought the ball up for the Commodores, down one, with a chance to win it.

John Wall stifles John Jenkins’ game-winning attempt

Wall, as usual, stepped up. When Beal’s rush to the hoop was interrupted, Beal dished to Jenkins beyond the stripe.
The freshman was open, but he faked, giving Wall time to close. Wall stuffed Jenkins’ attempt, ripped the ball away, and was fouled. Wall made one of two, but Calipari stupidly called a timeout when Vandy had none left, and the Commodores had one last ditch effort to tie with 2.5 seconds on the clock.

When Vandy sub Darnell McLendon launched a 3/4 court spiral to the leaping Ogivly, Wlldcat fans flashed back to 1992 when Christian Laettner made a similar catch en route to his famous game-winning shot against Kentucky in the round of 8. But Ogilvy is not Laettner, and his 14-foot floater clanked off the rim at the buzzer.

In defeat, Vandy had played its gutsiest game of the season, holding Goliath to a virtual standstill. Kentucky had demonstrated a defensive resolve and toughness for which it had not received credit.

In the aftermath of this epic battle, coaches and players and others sought consolation. Calipari, probably the only opposing coach in America with a winning record at Memorial, knew that he had dodged a bullet: “I thought Vandy’s game plan was perfect. They played physical, they held the ball on offense, controlled John Wall on defense, and played zone which made us attempt contested three-pointers. But bottom line is we shot 35.8% from the field, 18.8% on 3’s, and 56% from the foul line, and still won.”

Jeffery Taylor, who was the only Commodore in double figures with 17 points, collapsed on the floor after the game in frustration. “I’m disappointed because we had a chance to beat a really good team. I wanted to get it done for our fans and our student body. It hurts.”

In the rafters of the old hall, the ghosts and goblins who haunt the place gathered for a conference. ” We let one get away,” said their leader. “Yeah, but we’ll get them next time,” said another.

The Super Bowl is over. But for me the football season ended a couple of weeks ago.

It ended on a sultry night in New Orleans when an aging and gimpy Bret Favre threw across his body one last time into enemy hands. Those hands, belonging to Tracy Porter, also brought us to the end of yesterday’s Super Bowl, when the Saint defensive back grabbed hold of an errant toss from Peyton Manning and ran it back 74 yards for the clinching touchdown.

Sure, yesterday’s Super Bowl was exciting, and competitive, and was decided in the fourth quarter after a pitching duel between two of the best throwers the league has ever seen.

But after the interminable build-up, the Game itself had little juice. I can’t stand the two week delay. The Super Bowl hoopla annoys me. And I will be grateful if I never again read a human interest story about an NFL player doing community work, or view a commercial with men walking around in their underwear.

(Editor’s note: The Bard’s ennui was evidently not shared by the public at large. Yesterday’s Super Bowl was witnessed by more viewers than any television show in history.)

Two years ago, when the Giants were in it, I felt differently. But unless you were a Saint or Colts fan, did you really feel any intensity in advance of yesterday’s encounter? I know my mind was elsewhere.

It was in Verizon Center, where in the past week, the Georgetown Hoyas have defeated Duke, lost to lowly South Florida, and then on Saturday, before more than 10,000 who defied a record snowfall, torched the number two team in the land, Villanova, 103-90.

It was in College Park, where the unpredictability and reversals of fortune which have characterized this 2009-2010 college basketball season were no better typified than by Maryland’s trouncing of North Carolina, 92-71. Not only was this the worst loss of Roy Williams’ coaching career at UNC, but the outcome left the Terps at 6-2 in conference and the Tarheels at, gulp, 2-6.

It was in Cincinnati, where the most surprising team in the land, Syracuse, ranked number 9 pre-season in the Big East, stretched its record to 23-1 with a come from behind blow-out victory over the tough Bearcats, 71-54. The Orangemen returned less than 20 ppg from last year’s starting team, which surrendered three players to the pros.

It’s been on the road in the Big Ten, where number 5 Michigan State suffered consecutive conference losses after starting 9-0, and now faces its biggest game of the season vs. Purdue Wednesday possibly without its starting point guard, Kalin Lucas.

It’s been in Lexington, where Kentucky hopes to ride rookie John Wall to an NCAA championship.

And tonight, I’ll be drifting to Austin, Texas, where the Longhorns take the Big 12’s last best shot at inflicting Kansas with its first conference loss.

Many ardent sports fans will tell you that they can’t “get into” college basketball until the Super Bowl is over. Then, a couple of weeks before Selection Sunday, they begin to cram. They watch a bunch of games on ESPN or FSN, and they scan the rankings. They get really pumped for the conference tournaments. By Selection Sunday, they’re experts.

But if you’ve waited this long to get on board, you’ve missed about 75% of the regular season. The revealing early season non-conference games are a blur, and you’ve no feel for the ebb and flow of conference play, nor for the development of individual players over the course of the season.

You’ve missed the back story.

Hard core college basketball fans don’t wait until the Super Bowl to watch games. We’ve been following play since November. We’re not just interested in the year-end poll standings. We want to know how a team got there.

Were they improving at year’s end? …Do they have injured players back? …Do they feature improving freshmen?… Do they hit their foul shots?…… And most of all, do they play with character and poise at crunch time?

And after all the analysis, one is startled to find that there is no transitivity in college basketball. You would think that if Team A beats Team B, which owns a decisive victory over Team C, then Team A will beat Team C on its home court. Wrong. In the space of one Big East fortnight in January, Pitt beat Syracuse, which clubbed Georgetown, which beat Pitt decisively in Pittsburgh.

Because of the high turnover in rosters and the growth and maturation of young players, no other sport exhibits the potential for change in a team’s performance over the course of a season as does college basketball. Teams advance, or regress, weekly, or from game to game. Michigan State was last year’s example of a team coming together late. Davidson shined two years ago. This year, the breakout team may be Syracuse.. or Wisconsin..or Baylor.. or BYU.

But the good news is that you don’t have to be an expert to enjoy college hoops, where the fans are rabid and the players put out every night. In fact, the latecomers, les arrividistes, often do better in their brackets than do the self-proclaimed savants, such as this writer, who are inevitably victimized disproportionately by buzzer beaters, blown calls, unlikely comebacks, or just plain bad beats.

If that sounds like sour grapes, it is. But I must leave you now. Villanova tips off at West Virginia at 7:00, and I’ve got to do my research.

On Wednesday afternoon, at a press conference at Madison Square Garden to commemorate the 75th anniversary of college basketball, a panel of sportswriters and local basketball insiders presented its list of the ten (10) greatest moments in the long history of college basketball at the Garden. That evening, freshman phenom John Wall of Kentucky, in the course of leading the Wildcats to an exciting triumph over UConn, made a strong case for an addendum to the list.

At the top of the panel’s selections was City College’s unique double triumphs in the NIT and NCAA in 1950. That feat, of course, was later scarred by the indictment of seven of their key players for point shaving in the 1951 college basketball scandal. Other memorable moments were Syracuse’s 6-0T thriller over Connecticut in the 2009 Big East tourney (2); Bill Bradley’s 41-point outburst in a losing effort against Cazzie Russell and no 1-ranked Michigan in the 1964 Holiday Festival tournament (3); and Oscar Robertson’s 57 point Garden debut for Cincinnati in January, 1958, when the Big O outscored the entire Seton Hall team (6).

Here’s the rest of the list.

#4 Gerry McNamara’s Big East Heroics, March 2006. McNamara, a four year starter at point guard, in the midst of a disappointing season, sparked no. 9 seed Syracuse to four victories and a Big East championship

#5 Walter Berry’s Buzzer Block, March 1986 . Trailing 70-69, with seconds to go in the Big East tournament championship, Syracuse’s Pearl Washington, the greatest penetrator in the game, drove hard to the basket . Walter “the Truth” Berry, not known for his defense, swooped across the lane to block the Pearl’s shot as the game ended.

#7 Legendary St. John’s Coach Joe Lapchick ends his career with an NIT Championship, March, 1965.

#8 St. John’s defeats Michigan, January, 1965. Having survived Princeton and Bradley in the semi-finals, No. 1 Michigan squandered a late 16-point lead in the Holiday Festival championship

#9 “The Sweater Game,” February, 1985 . With their teams ranked nos. 1 and 2 in the country, GU coach John Thompson mimicked Lou Carnesecca’s lucky red sweater by unveiling a T-shirt replica as the game started. More to the point, the Hoyas thumped St. John’s in the first of three late-season pummelings.

#10 Stanford snaps LIU’s 43-game winning streak, December, 1936. It’s hard to believe, but in the early days, LIU (Long Island University), NYU, and CCNY were among the best teams in the country. Brandishing the one-hand shots of Hank Luisetti and a frenetic pace, the Cardinal stunned the locals, who were accustomed to a walk-it-up pace and two-handed set shots.

It’s unclear whether Wall’s performance Wednesday will evoke such sacrosanct memories in the long term; but he certainly stunned the Garden crowd from start to finish. Early on, he staked the Wildcats to a 12-0 lead with two steals, an alley-oop assist, and a medium-range jumper. Then, he scored 12 of the last 15 Kentucky points, including a 3-point play late in the game through four defenders to secure the victory. Already, he’s being hailed by some overeager pundits as the best freshman point guard in history, a category which includes Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Chris Paul, and Derrick Rose.

In the tradition of classic point guards, Wall looks to pass first, but takes over at critical junctures. Already in his short career, he has registered four game-deciding plays (to ensure victories over Miami of Ohio, Stanford, UNC and UConn ); but against Indiana yesterday, he scored only 11 points while registering eight assists and seven rebounds, as he let his teammates do the scoring in a blowout victory.

Wall was the lynchpin of a talented recruiting class which John Calipari re-routed from Memphis to Kentucky when he took the Wildcat heading coaching job in May. Kentucky finished 22-14 (8-8) last year, and failed to make the NCAA tournament for the first time in eighteen years.

That may have been sufficient grounds by itself to can Cal’s predecessor, Billy Gillispie; but the ultra slick Gillispie openly cavorted with college coeds, was often seen drunk in public, and paid little obeisance to Kentucky boosters, who demanded his ouster. Notwithstanding Calipari’s spotty past, he represented a significant character upgrade over Gillispie, and he brought Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Eric Bledsoe with him.

This talented threesome joins power stud Patrick Patterson to give Kentucky its best team in a decade. Three starters from last season now come off the bench. In the past week, they’ve registered wins over UNC, UConn, and Indiana, three storied franchises. Now, undefeated at 10-0, and ranked 3rd in the country, they’ve got some breathing room until their January 2 meeting with state rival Louisville, which is in the midst of a down season. The Wildcats are likely to remain undefeated at least until their home date with Florida January 12th.

Kentucky’s resurgence is joined by a revival of the SEC as a whole. Limited to three teams in the 2009 NCAA’S, the conference is poised to place six or seven teams in this year’s Dance. Tennessee, one of the most athletic teams in the country, will contend with Kentucky for the lead in the SEC East. Also in the East, Florida, with an early win over Michigan State and a dynamite backcourt, should win 25 games; and Vanderbilt, though starting slowly, has the talent to finish better than .500 in-conference, normally a guaranty of selection.

The surprise team in the conference will be Mississippi State, which features the nation’s top shot-blocker, Jarvis Varnado, and five starters in double figures. The Bulldogs should win the West, followed by Mississippi.

The Big East is also off to a fast start. Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia and Syracuse are among the ten undefeated teams in the country. UConn is still UConn. Pitt, Louisville, and Marquette have taken a step back, but former doormats Cincinnati, St. John’s, and Seton Hall are much improved.

If history is an indicator, come Big East tournament time, someone among this group is likely to manufacture a Madison Square Garden moment comparable to the highlight reel produced by John Wall on this famous hardwood just a few days ago.

Last year, at about this time, we analyzed the Regionals in the context of certain statistical measures provided by Statfox in their publication “Edge,” which identified eight traits shared by more than eighty percent (80%) of Final Four teams over the past eleven years. They are, as follows:

Scored at least 73 PPG
Allowed 67 PPG or less
Outscored opponents by at least 10 PPG
Shot at least 47% from the field
Allowed 41% or less from the field
Shot at least 69% on free throws
Shot at least 35% on 3PT attempts
Out rebounded opponents by at least 3 RPG

Let’s apply these standards to our analysis of this weekend’s games:

East Regionals (Boston).

Pitt (1) vs. Xavier (4). Pitt has been our darling all year, but they don’t blow good teams out, and they are vulnerable should DuJuan Blair get into foul trouble. Plus, they’re not playing at their best right now. In Xavier, they meet a team which is cast in their blue collar image and coached by a Pitt alum, Sean Miller, who played point guard for the Panthers in the early nineties. Both teams favor the half-court set and a lot of interior banging. Role players play a big role with both teams. Pitt goes eight deep, Xavier nine deep. Between them, nine players score between five and nine points. But Xavier has no one to contain the bestial Blair, and no one to match the athleticism of Sam Young. The Muskies’ offense comes primarily from three versatile and veteran forwards: C.J. Anderson, Derrick Brown, and B.J. Raymond. Indicator-wise, Pitt nearly sweeps the board, but for its 67.4%. foul shooting .Most impressively, they out score opponents 78-64, and out rebound them by ten a game. The X-men flunk in two categories (46.3 FG%, 67.5 FT%), but out rebound by eight a game and shoot 39.9% from 3-point land, tying Gonzaga for best in the tournament. At crunch time, Pitt has veteran leadership with LaVance Fields at the point vs. the inexperienced Holloway and Redford. This may prove the difference in a close game. We like Pitt to emerge, but will not lay the seven.

Duke (2) vs. Villanova (3). Duke comes into this game ranked no. 1 in the RPI, and as ACC tournament champion, but we’re not convinced of their greatness. For one thing, they get scoring from three individuals only. Only Henderson, Singler, and Scheyer, are double figure threats. Like Pitt and Xavier, Villanova has several bangers and spreads its offense around nicely. Eight players score more than five per game, and Dante Cunningham will be the best big man on the floor. Their dismantling of UCLA in the second round was a masterpiece. Statistically, Villanova passes all the tests but one (45.7 FG%), but shoots free throws at 74.2%, second best to UNC in the remaining field. Duke shoots (44.8%) and defends (43%) less than the standard, and shoots 3-balls at 34.9%.We cannot see the Blue Devils matching up to ‘Novas muscular front court and overall depth. Take Villanova plus the 2.5 point helping.

If we’re right, Sunday’s regional final will be a rematch of two Big East heavyweights. When they first met, Villanova pasted Pitt in Philadelphia, 67-57; and true to form, Blair was in foul trouble. If the Big Fella plays his game, the Panthers will book passage to Detroit.

South Regional (Memphis)

North Carolina (1) vs. Gonzaga (4) This is a matchup of the most offensively-minded teams in the tournament. There are perhaps eleven future pros on both teams combined, including the starting teams and Carolina rookie sensation Ed Davis off the bench. Both teams like to press the tempo, but the ‘Zags pay more attention to stopping their opponent. They defend at 37% compared to the Tarheels’ 42%. They relinquish 61 PPG compared to UNC’s 73 PPG. Nevertheless, Carolina enjoys the largest margin of victory in the tournament (20 pts), and has been able to survive its benign neglect on defense by out scoring its opponents. A whopping five Tarheels score eleven points or more.

With the return to full strength of Ty Lawson, it becomes more important for Gonzaga point guard Jeremy Pargo to assert himself. At 6-2 220, Pargo is a brute with a good handle, a hard move to the basket, and post-up skills. His scoring is down from the last two years as he has become more of a distributor than a first or second option; but if he can put pressure on Lawson defensively, that might slow the Carolina engine. As well, Josh Heyvelt must actively engage Ty Hansbrough down low for the ‘Zags to stay competitive. The rest of the Bulldogs - Daye, Bouldin, and Gray- can more than match up with Heels Ellington, Thompson, and Green. Take Gonzaga plus the 8.5.

Oklahoma (2) vs. Syracuse (3) Oklahoma comes within a hair of meeting all the statistical measures, but they give up 68 PPG, and they shoot fouls at 68%. The Orangemen flunk four of the eight tests. Their margin of victory is only nine points, they give up 72 PPG, their rebounding margin is just two, and they shoot fouls at a woeful 63.9%. This figure may be a bit deceiving since big men Oneaku and Jackson are the primary bricklayers and the ball handlers shoot free throws well; but at crunch time, Boeheim cannot go with his best front court because of the threat of putting Oneaku or Jackson on the line. And the Orangemen will want all the front court strength they can muster to combat the tirades of Sooner Blake Griffin, who shoots 63.5% from the field and is the likely Player of the Year. To stay close, ‘Cuse must ring up the register with 3-balls because they will be at a disadvantage in the blocks. Reluctantly, because we favor the ‘Cuse, we see the Sooners advancing.

We like the winner of the Gonzaga-UNC tussle to advance against either Syracuse or Oklahoma.

West Region (Glendale)

UConn (1) vs. Purdue (5). Purdue is a nice team with nice players, but it may be in over its head against a rejuvenated Huskie squad which has found the scorer to replace the injured Jerome Dyson in 6’9” forward Stanley Robinson. Though averaging just 7.1 for the season, Robinson has scored 64 points in the last three games, including 28 in the memorable 6 OT affair against Syracuse in the Big East Tournament. There is no better front line in the tournament than Hakeem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, and Robinson. Slender Purdue simply cannot do battle with this threesome in the trenches. Purdue does not make up this deficiency in the backcourt where UConn’s Price, Walker, and Austrie will give no ground. Statistically speaking, Connecticut dominates, with a 13 pt scoring margin (77-64), a 47% -38% advantage in FG marksmanship, and an 8 rebound/game advantage. Their foul shooting and 3 FG% are slightly under par at 67.7% and 34.7%, respectively. Purdue has some difficulty scoring (69 PPG) and does not out rebound its opponents. This may be an old-fashioned beat down. Lay the 6.5.

Memphis (2) vs. Missouri (3). Missouri is the new kid on the block. Memphis has been here before. That should count for something. But there are other reasons that the Tigers (of the Missouri variety) may be in trouble. Memphis has the ball handlers to withstand the Mizzou press, and that may open up fast break opportunities for Memphis to attack the rim, which they do very well. There is no better forward scoring tandem in basketball than Missouri’s DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons; but after these two, there is a drop-off. No one else scores double figures. Carroll is a transfer from Vanderbilt, who left Nashville to join his uncle, coach Mike Anderson, at Missouri. The Commodores could have used him the last couple of years. Statistically, Memphis kills. They outscore opponents by 15 and impose a 36 FG% on the opposition. Their only drawback is from 3 pt. land where they shot an abysmal 32%, worst of the sweet sixteen. But they were accurate against Maryland in the round of 32. Missouri has a healthy margin of victory (81-66), but their rebounding (no edge) and their foul shooting (66.8%) are questionable. Lay the 4.5.

In the regional finals, we see a contest between Memphis and UConn that is too close to call. Check Today’s Selections II on game day for a pick.

Midwest Regional (Indianapolis)

Louisville (1) vs. Arizona (12). When the season began, Arizona found itself without a coach and without a starting five. When Lute Olson retired, and Mike Dunlap refused an interim appointment, hand-me-down Russ Fennell took over. Meanwhile, three prize recruits opted to go elsewhere. It took most of the season for the Wildcats to develop reliable complements to stars Budinger, Hill, and Wise; but having filled out their starting quintet, they are left with no bench. Against Louisville, which presses relentlessly and has a deep bench, the end is in sight for the Wildcats, whose average margin of victory is a scant 4 points (72-68) and who relinquish 44% FG%. On the plus side, they shoot 39.5% from 3 point land and 73.4% from the stripe. Louisville’s only deficiency is from the foul line (64.3%). Arizona will have to pitch a perfect game to keep this one close. Lay the nine.

Michigan State (2) vs. Kansas (3). Michigan State won a previous meeting at East Lansing, 75-62; but the Jayhawks feature four freshmen in their rotation who are better players now than they were then. And Kansas, alone among the Sweet Sixteen, meets all of the statistical measures we are following. Significantly, they shoot 48% from the field and give up just 39%; outrebound by seven; shoot 38% from 3 point land; and shoot 72.8% from the stripe. These are very strong numbers. The Spartans come up short in four of the eight categories. We suspect that the combination of Collins and Aldrich is better than anything that Michigan State can come up with.

If Louisville plays Kansas in the regional final, the Cardinals’ experience and pressure is likely to overcome any edge Kansas may have in the statistics. As all gamblers know, no matter the advantage going in, the game still has to be played on the court.

In 2008, for the first time since the seeding process began in 1979, all four number one seeds in the NCAA Tournament advanced to the Final Four - Kansas, North Carolina, Memphis, and UCLA. En route, only Kansas suffered a glitch, when it was challenged by Davidson in the round of eight. Otherwise, it was smooth sailing for the Fab Four. Boy, were they loaded.

Kansas sent four of its starting five to the NBA. UCLA lost first-round picks Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, and Luc Mbah a Moute. Memphis relinquished number one overall pick in the draft Derrick Rose, multi-scorer Chris Douglas-Roberts and big Joey Dorsey. North Carolina retained its starting five, which included All-Americans Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson, giving rise to early season predictions that the Tarheels would be this year’s champ.

But as we examine this year’s top seeds, which include North Carolina, they do not stand head and shoulder above their peers. Several factors have contributed to a levelling off of talent. First, there have been few freshman sensations this year. Among the eight top seeds, only three freshmen (Samardo Samuels, Tyreke Evans, and Willie Warren) are averaging double figures; and only Evans of Memphis is its team’s leading scorer. Secondly, more and more teams are building around a crew of three and four year starters who have developed over the course of the program.

Examples of stars developing over time are seniors Sam Young of Pitt, Dante Cunningham of Villanova, Demarre Carroll of Missouri, and Gonzagans Jeremy Pargo and Josh Heyvelt. Teams which have been nurturing with their talent, rather than searching for freshman life-savers, are reaping the benefits. The result is more quality teams with veteran performers. The paths which Louisville, Pitt, North Carolina, UConn and No. 2 seed Memphis will take to Ford Field in Detroit April 6 are loaded with minefields.

First, let’s look at overall number one seed Louisville, in the Midwest Region. The Cardinals were not even in the mix of possible number ones until the last weekend of the regular season when they captured the Big East regular season crown and followed it up with a victory in the Big East tournament as UConn, Pitt, Michigan State, and North Carolina were losing in the first or second rounds. A favorable conference schedule allowed them to meet chief rivals UConn, Pitt, and Marquette only once each at home. Connecticut blasted Louisville 68-51 on February 2nd

We associate the overall number one seed with a level of dominance, but Louisville has scrapped and scraped for several of its victories. Three of the Cards’ notable triumphs (against Pitt 1/17/09 and against Villanova and Syracuse in the Big East Tourney) came when they made up substantial second-half deficits after being outplayed most of the game.

On most great teams, a quality point guard is the hub of the offense; but the ‘Ville has masked a point guard deficiency by employing four guards in rotation, none averaging more than 7.5 ppg. These guards have facilitated the second half comebacks by forcing steals under full-court defensive pressure. The scoring heart of the team is its fabulous front line, consisting of future pros Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, and Samuels.

Were the ‘Ville to face a team with a point guard capable of beating its press and a front line capable of matching up with Williams, Clark, and Samuels, they might be in trouble. And that is exactly what Wake Forest would bring to the table in the round of 16. Teague is a wonderful point guard; and Wake’s front line of Aminu, Johnson, and McFarland can stand up to the Ville’s big three. Should the Cards escape that trap, they might confront a similar situation in the round of eight from Michigan State, which also has a great point guard (Lucas) and ample bigs.

In the East, Pitt is the number one seed. The best team we’ve seen this season is Pitt playing at its best. They play a bruising, shut-down defense, and can hurt you in the low-post (DuJuan Blair), on the wing (Sam Young), and from the perimeter, with LaVance Fields and Jermaine Dixon. Off the bench, they’ve got several interchangeable parts (Biggs, Gibbs, Wanamaker, and Brown) who all contribute. Pitt has knocked on the door for the last ten seasons, but has not during that period advanced beyond the round of sixteen. They are due.

But the Panthers have a cross to bear. In three of their four defeats, Blair has gotten into foul trouble which has prevented him from playing more than half the game. They must keep the Big Fella on the court to preserve their edge. At some point in this tournament, Blair is going to pick up his second foul before the ten minute mark; and at that point, the Panthers will be vulnerable. Even Tennessee in the second round, with the talented Wayne Chism, is capable of going after Blair.

In the South, North Carolina faces a serious threat in the Sweet Sixteen from Gonzaga. The ‘Zags can match the Tarheels in depth and athleticism and play better defense. They also protect the ball better than UNC, which ranks 61st in the field of 64 in assist to turnover ratio. Clouding UNC’s status as well is the condition of Ty Lawson. If he is not 100%, we don’t feel that he can stay with Syracuse’s Johnny Flynn in the round of eight.

The last of the number ones, UConn, shares top billing in the West with number two Memphis, which should probably have gotten the top seed in the region. The Huskies lost their point guard and leader when Jerome Dyson went down. His substitute, freshman Kimba Walker, is a great talent, but often runs off half-cocked, which is not what you want from your ball controller at crunch time. Late-game foul shooting has also been a trouble spot for UConn.

We see Memphis, if it survives Missouri in the round of sixteen, prevailing over UConn. The Tigers have four returnees from their 2008 finalists to which they added the outstanding Evans. They play suffocating defense and hit the boards as well as anybody. The only question is their three-point shooting which stands at a lowly 32%, 61st in the tournament. The sleeper in this bracket is Missouri, which employs a pressure defense and has talented offensive weapons in Carroll and Leo Lyons. Missouri is capable of beating Memphis in an up-and-down game.

So tempting though it may be to go with the chalk when filling out your brackets, it may be advisable to pick up an eraser before you make your final submissions.