I’ve spent hours staring at my NCAA grid trying to divine who among the top seeds has the least obstructed path to Phoenix, and the answer is …..nobody. There are valid reasons why 10-15 teams can either win all their games or be knocked out by the second round.
And I’m not the only one confused. When the most respected source in the college basketball industry, the Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings, rates West Virginia, a four seed, as the 7th best team in the country, no. 1 seed Kansas 10th, 5th seed Virginia 7th, and no. 2 seed Arizona 20th, you know that we are not dealing with an exact science.
Unlike a year ago, when Michigan State was robbed of a no. 1 seed, there was no outcry this time over the top seeds. The wonderment arises over several mid-level slottings. How do Maryland and Minnesota rate higher seeds than Michigan or Wisconsin? What is Florida State, which limped home with losses to Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, doing as a rarefied 3 seed in the West? The biggest travesty is Wichita State, eighth in the Pomeroy ratings and winners of 10 straight, seeded 10th in the South. The selectors may have been trying to set up a re-match of their classic bout w/Kentucky three years ago, but the seeding is an insult to the Shockers’ season.
Among the top 25, no team really stands out, and no team can be counted out. Can no. 8 seed Wisconsin topple Villanova in the second round in the East? Absolutely. Can no. 7 seed Michigan, fresh off a sweep of the Big Ten conference and featuring a revamped starting lineup, beat Louisville and Oregon to make the round of eight (and more) in the Midwest? That’s a definite maybe.
What about unnoticed and unheralded SMU, sixth seeded in the East and winners of 20 straight? The Mustangs were ravaged by scholarship reductions resulting from NCAA violations, and injuries, and lost their coach, Larry Brown, abruptly just before the season. But they boast the nation’s 3rd best defense (59.4 ppg), five starters 6-6 or taller, and one of the nation’s great players in Semi Ojeleye, a transfer from Duke. SMU-Duke in the round of 16 will be a collision.
The curve ball in predicting any outcome is the presence and prevalence of the 3-ball. More and more games are being turned by disparities in 3-point accuracy. Big leads are being extinguished in moments by 3-point specialists on hot streaks, which leads to the greater chance of upsets.
Among the top seeds, Gonzaga probably has the easiest early path since they’re a gimme to win their first two games, but Notre Dame, their likely opponent in the round of sixteen, should put up fierce resistance. The Irish offense is a force. They shoot 80.9 from the charity stripe. 6-5, 240 lb forward Bonzie Colson is Charles Barkley in diapers. He averages a double double. Seniors Beacham and Vasturio are smooth operators. Notre Dame is battle-tested and Gonzaga is not. Upset alert.
Kansas is flawed and can be toppled early by either Michigan State or Iowa State, its Big 12 rival. The Jayhawks played a lot of close games, and their front court is far from overpowering. They do not shoot fouls well.
Through 25 minutes of the semi-final ACC tourney match between North Carolina and Duke, Carolina looked like the best team in the country. They won the regular season of the nation’s strongest conference by two games, have size and depth to burn, and are ultra-experienced, having lost in the finals last year to Villanova on a last-second shot. But the last 15 minutes of their semis encounter with Duke rekindled all of our suspicions about them. They lost their point guard, Joel Berry, to foul trouble; they lost a 13-point lead; and they lost their nerve.
Based on their strong regular season, North Carolina held onto the number one seed in the South, but this is clearly the toughest region, particularly in the bottom half of the bracket. where four powerhouses reside – Kentucky, UCLA, Cincinnati, and Wichita State. Fortunately for the Tarheels, following difficult but winnable outings against Seton Hall and Butler, they will have to face only the survivor of the four; and they should be up to that task.
But analysis gets us only so far. Kismet can matter just as much as adjusted offense efficiency when crowning a champion.
It’s been twenty years since an NCAA champion (Arizona) came from the Pacific time zone, and this year’s Final Four is in their back yard. The Arizona Wildcats, featuring the positively splendid 7′ freshman from Finland, Lauri Markkanen, cut down the nets.